Bitcoin on-chain alert lifted! Long-term holder sell pressure sharply reduced, MVRV hits 2.19 historical buy point suggesting a rebound is imminent | BTC price prediction

Bitcoin is currently priced at $114,000, with a slight rise of 1.1% during the day, but it has still fallen 3.77% on a weekly basis. Key on-chain indicators are signaling a trend change: the on-chain movement of coins aged 7-10 years has significantly narrowed, indicating that the selling pressure from long-term holders is exhausted; the MVRV ratio has dropped to 2.19, reaching the starting point level of the three big pumps in November 2024/April and June 2025. The Long-Short Ratio in the derivatives market has reversed from 0.89 to 1.02, with traders quietly positioning for long positions. The convergence of these three signals suggests that $113,000 may become a phase bottom, with BTC poised to challenge the $120,000 mark.

Long-term holders stop selling, on-chain movement narrows rapidly Deep corrections usually begin with the sell-off of long-term holders (LTH). On-chain data monitoring has found:

(Bitcoin price and Spent Output chart: Cryptoquant)

1. Selling Pressure Trajectory: From July 23 to August 1, the Spent Output Bands of 7-10 year coin age expanded, indicating that Bitcoin addresses that had been dormant for nearly ten years began to transfer coins. A similar situation occurred from July 10 to 19, causing BTC to fall from $123,000 to $117,000.
2. Pressure Decay: The current moving bandwidth is significantly smaller than the mid-July range, and the LTH selling pressure has continued to weaken since the peak on July 4th. More importantly, during this sell-off, the coin price has remained above $113,000, demonstrating strong market support.
3. Reversal Signal: The moving band has recently narrowed sharply, indicating that the large-scale coin transfer behavior of long-term holders has stopped. Historical experience shows that this often signals the end of a pullback.

MVRV ratio touches the big pump threshold again, 2.19 becomes the golden buying zone

(Bitcoin price and MVRV ratio: Cryptoquant) As the supply-side pressure eases, the valuation metric MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value) sends a strong bullish signal:

• Historical Patterns: The current MVRR is reported at 2.19, which highly coincides with the starting points of the recent three big pumps—June 2025 at 2.16 (9% rise in 6 days), April at 2.12 (17.8% increase), and November 2024 at 2.04 (46% big pump).
• Indicator Explanation: MVRV below 2.5 usually indicates undervaluation, currently at the "rising sweet spot". This value indicates that the current coin price is still below the cost basis of most holders, leaving ample room for upward movement.

The derivatives market has quietly shifted, with the Long-Short Ratio reversing to 1.02 Market sentiment is improving synchronously:

(Bitcoin Long-Short Ratio: Coinglass)

• The derivation platform's Long-Short Ratio reversed from a low of 0.89 two days ago to 1.02, indicating that traders are shifting from caution to positioning long positions.
• This change resonates technically with the on-chain supply contraction and low valuation.

Conclusion: Three key signals confirm that Bitcoin is reaching the end of its bottoming phase—long-term holders' on-chain movements indicate a narrowing sign of selling pressure exhaustion, the 2.19 MVRV ratio reappears at the historical big pump starting point, and the derivation Long-Short Ratio has reversed as a leading indicator of market sentiment shift. If it stabilizes above $115,000 during the day, the rebound target will directly aim for the $117,500 neckline and the psychological level of $120,000. Investors need to closely monitor the changes in the VIX (Volatility Index) of U.S. stocks and the fund flow of spot ETFs, and may consider averaging into positions on dips in the short term. Caution is advised regarding the second revision of U.S. non-farm payroll data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, with $113,000 below having already become the last defense line for bulls.