On the eve of the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision, market sentiment is tense. Analysis shows that three scenarios may occur tonight, each of which will have varying degrees of impact on the market.

The first scenario is that Chairman Powell clearly states that interest rates will start to be cut in September. In this case, the market may experience a strong rebound, but the probability of this happening is only 20%.

The second scenario, which is also the most likely to occur (with a probability of about 50%), is that Powell hints at the possibility of interest rate cuts but does not provide a specific timetable. This moderate stance will also be seen as a positive signal by the market.

The third scenario is that Powell does not mention interest rate cuts at all and may even reaffirm a hawkish stance. In this case, the market could see a new round of declines, with a probability of about 30%.

In the face of this uncertainty, investors should maintain a cautious attitude. For the spot market, a strategy of building positions in batches may be considered; while in the futures market, greater care should be taken, and operations should only be conducted when clear reversal signals appear.

Regardless, it is crucial to closely monitor the Fed's statements and Powell's speeches, as this will directly affect the market direction in the coming period. Investors need to quickly adjust their strategies based on the actual situation to adapt to any potential market changes.