Crypto markets have historically fallen into a four-year bull and bear cycles that seem to revolve around the Bitcoin halving, however, this pattern could be unravelling, according to industry analysts and experts
“Top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold almost 1 MILLION Bitcoin,” said author and investor Jason Williams in a post on X on Sunday.
“This is why the Bitcoin 4 year cycle is over.”
Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, made similar comments in an article published on Friday by CNBC
“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over,” Hougan said, echoing comments he made in July
For the past three market cycles, Bitcoin’s price peak has come in the year that follows the halving, namely in 2013, 2017, 2021, and now due again four years later in 2025
Bluefin community lead Harry Collins shares a four-year cycle outlook — predicting a bull market top in October Source:Harry Collins## Game over for the four-year crypto cycle
“It seems more likely than not that the 4-year cycles are over,” agreed the CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, Pierre Rochard, in an X post on Monday.
He added that Bitcoin halvings are “immaterial to trading float,” as 95% of BTC has been mined and the supply comes from “buying out OGs,” with demand coming from “the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.”
Related:Macro drivers will dampen Bitcoin’s halving cycle — Tim Draper
“The four‑year halving cycle remains a useful reference point, but it’s no longer the sole driver of market behavior,” Martin Burgherr, Chief Clients Officer at Sygnum Bank, told Cointelegraph
He added that as the market matures, macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and ETF adoption have become just as influential.
“In practice, the four‑year framework is becoming one of several inputs rather than the market’s central script.”
Crypto analyst ‘CRYPTO₿IRB’ was of the opposite opinion, telling his 715,000 X followers on Sunday that saying the four-year cycle is gone is “wrong.”
He explained that ETFs have strengthened four-year crypto cycles because traditional finance runs on four-year presidential cycles and ETFs increase the “crypto-tradfi correlation.”
“Not to mention 4-year halving cycles which simply just can't be cancelled as they're mathematically programmed lol,” he added, seemingly referencing Bitcoin’s halving events
Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca told Cointelegraph in July that the risk of a prolonged bear market is still very real and the four-year cycles are still intact.
“So many people are saying, ‘Oh, the institutions are here, and, therefore, the cyclical sort of nature of Bitcoin is dead.’ I'm not sure I agree with that,” he said.
Magazine:How Ethereum treasury companies could spark ‘DeFi Summer 2.0’
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Is the four-year crypto cycle dead? Believers are growing louder
Crypto markets have historically fallen into a four-year bull and bear cycles that seem to revolve around the Bitcoin halving, however, this pattern could be unravelling, according to industry analysts and experts
“Top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold almost 1 MILLION Bitcoin,” said author and investor Jason Williams in a post on X on Sunday.
Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, made similar comments in an article published on Friday by CNBC
“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over,” Hougan said, echoing comments he made in July
For the past three market cycles, Bitcoin’s price peak has come in the year that follows the halving, namely in 2013, 2017, 2021, and now due again four years later in 2025
“It seems more likely than not that the 4-year cycles are over,” agreed the CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, Pierre Rochard, in an X post on Monday.
He added that Bitcoin halvings are “immaterial to trading float,” as 95% of BTC has been mined and the supply comes from “buying out OGs,” with demand coming from “the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.”
Related: Macro drivers will dampen Bitcoin’s halving cycle — Tim Draper
“The four‑year halving cycle remains a useful reference point, but it’s no longer the sole driver of market behavior,” Martin Burgherr, Chief Clients Officer at Sygnum Bank, told Cointelegraph
He added that as the market matures, macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments, and ETF adoption have become just as influential.
Crypto analyst ‘CRYPTO₿IRB’ was of the opposite opinion, telling his 715,000 X followers on Sunday that saying the four-year cycle is gone is “wrong.”
He explained that ETFs have strengthened four-year crypto cycles because traditional finance runs on four-year presidential cycles and ETFs increase the “crypto-tradfi correlation.”
“Not to mention 4-year halving cycles which simply just can't be cancelled as they're mathematically programmed lol,” he added, seemingly referencing Bitcoin’s halving events
Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca told Cointelegraph in July that the risk of a prolonged bear market is still very real and the four-year cycles are still intact.
“So many people are saying, ‘Oh, the institutions are here, and, therefore, the cyclical sort of nature of Bitcoin is dead.’ I'm not sure I agree with that,” he said.
Magazine: How Ethereum treasury companies could spark ‘DeFi Summer 2.0’